PETpla.net Insider 12 / 2012

MATERIAL / RECYCLING 14 PET planet insider Vol. 13 No. 12/12 www.petpla.net little room for optimism in his sum- mary: ”The New Normal will be differ- ent from the baby boomer-led super- cycle: Growth will be lower – debt levels will be lower – regulation will be higher – government will be more involved.” There will be winners and losers and it will be no different for the PET Industries. There will be those companies that react to the New Nor- mality and those who long hopelessly for the return of the old times. But then Hodges comes to what is pos- sibly a conciliatory conclusion, when, good-humouredly, he starts to intone the song popularised by the Beatles when they popped the question in 1967 ie ”Will you still need me, will you still feed me, when I’m sixty-four?” As we well know, they answered that question positively at that time. ”PET Market in Europe. Situa- tion and Perspective 2012 – 2014. Market & Product Developments“ Ricardo Monfil, Novapet’s Commer- cial Director set out the Spanish/Ibe- rian and then the European facts rela- tive to the above described scenario in his talk on the PET market. Ricardo Monfil The Spanish PET Market, as is well known, is currently finding itself affected by financial and debt crises. The same applies to all southern Euro- pean countries. Public expenditure is being cut, something which is having disastrous direct effects on the PET value added chain. The prognoses extrapolated as far as the year 2014 in relation to Europe and the fast moving commodities as far as beverages are concerned tell the facts all too clearly: Water and CSD show between 0 and minus 3% growth. For water economic recovery seems to be far away. There exists strong “green pressure”. CSD consumption is strongly effected by seasonal condi- tions with a preferences for healthier drinks. Alternative PET Products (PET bottles for beer, wine, dairy, functional drinks and also film materials) are not suitable when it comes to balancing out the deficit between water and CSD. Overall, says Monfil, the Euro- pean PET markets are continuing to edge down - in 2012 up to 2014. In terms of quantities a balance may well be achieved as a result of supplying to Asia/Pacific and the remainder of America. Here in Europe a new chal- lenge is arising in terms of products and applications, new, innovative prod- ucts for which a demand exists. And, with this in mind, Monfil closes with the words: ”We want to bring a proactive and optimistic perspective, to speak of growth in very specific segments and applications. That will require organisation adapted to be able to anticipate and then serve with the right products.” “Where are we going in the supply chain of Polyester – Key factors, a Macro Perspective.” by Richard Bartlett, BP Aromatics EMEA, Director Commercial - repre- senting the first level in the PET chain, the petrochemical origin. Richard Bartlett Being aware of the importance of crude oil as base material for all PET industries, Bartlett identified the global long-term energy issues. He presented some projections up to 2030 from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, taking account of the potential evolution of the world economy, policy and technology. He also answered questions on availabil- ity of resources in the years to come and the volatility of prices. There is no time to give other than a flavour of Bartlett’s detailed, inter- esting and challenging remarks, but we give below some of the essential points: World energy demand – up from 12,0bn (billion tons of oil equiva- lent) in 2010 to 16,6bn in 2030 – 96% of growth from emerging countries. India’s and China’s share of world energy up from 11% in 2010 to 34% in 2030. Globally there will be an increased fuel diversification in 2030: Renewables (including biofuels) 6,3%, Nuclear 6%, Hydroelectric 6,8%, Coal 27,7%, Natural Gas 25,9%, Crude Oil 27,2%, i.e. more than 80% is still derived from fossil fuels. Thanks to high tech technologies being deployed in exploring untapped reserves, energy will be affordable, available and sustainable in future. Continuous research to be done on energy efficiency, on avoiding environ- mental damage and carbon emission. We may infer from the presenta- tion, that high growth in per capita income on global average need not be constrained by resource availability. There are enough energy resources to fuel continued economic growth and industrialisation, especially in the non-OECD countries. On the issue of price we may note, that oil prices are a driver of infla- tion and prices certainly need to be paid. (PET industries suffer from high prices of oil). Prices must be able to float freely, and must be allowed to play their role as signals to guide the reallocation of energy flows. Final market prices however are influenced by external, mostly political and fiscal factors according to the BP Director – and on this disquieting note for the conference delegates, he concluded his presentation. “PET without borders. New applica- tions and competitive advantages of PET compared to other materials” Miguel A. Arto, Director of Business Development of Novapet – brought the audience back from a global to a European outlook and from industrial developments to the development of PET and PET related industries. Miguel A. Arto