TRADE SHOW REVIEW PETplanet Insider Vol. 24 No. 05/23 www.petpla.net 40 Icis PET Value Chain Conference 2023 by Kay Barton From March 7-8, the UK-based Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (Icis) from London again organised the annual PET Value Chain Conference, this time in the centre of Vienna in Austria. The focus was on PET recycling and rPET, circular economy, energy and resource stability in times of crisis, as well as macroeconomic outlooks on changing global markets. The conference was attended by 96 top executives and industry experts from across the supply chain from 26 countries. In addition to exciting presentations from the industry, the analysts from Icis provided interesting data and facts on current developments in the recycling world, which we have summarised for you. Icis’ Senior Analyst for Polyester Chain Mrs Jincy Varghese addressed virgin material developments in her presentation “Virgin PET Supply and Demand Dynamics: Mapping Market Instability”. Icis is forecasting the global polyester incremental capacity to increase by 8.4 million tonnes for food-grade PET, fibre and film in 2023. Foodgrade PET would account for 2.5 million tonnes. The largest share, 66%, would go to beverage applications, followed by 20% packaging in general and 14% miscellaneous (e.g., pharma, hygiene and other industrial applications such as strapping). The largest growth between 2022 to 2025 will be driven primarily by Southeast Asia, followed by Northeast Asia, Africa and Middle East. Overall, the company forecasts an average PET demand increase of 3.0% growth for this period, with the largest demand coming from the AsiaPacific region. While the earthquakes in Turkey did not have a significant impact on European supply chains, according to Mrs Varghese, economic changes such as inflation and higher energy and production costs due to the Ukraine war caused lower yields. Concerns about developments in the energy crisis would persist through 2023 and 2024, according to Icis. “We don’t expect gas prices in Europe to remain at a high level in the long term, but they will command premium,” Mrs Varghese said. International dependencies on polyester imports would continue. From 2021 to 2022, PET imports in Europe increased by about 80% from around 550 kt to 900 kt. Northeast Asia and Asia-Pacific are the most important trading partners for the EU polyester imports. Globally, China was the largest PET exporter with over 4 million tonnes of material exported in 2022. In response to an audience question on how Asian exports might change in the future, Jincy Varghese pointed out that Europe is a structurally short market, so Europe’s dependence on imports is expected to continue. Similar to Europe, United States is a net importer as well. However, with the new PET-PTA Corpus Christi plant, which is under construction, this situation is going to change. The initiation of an antidumping investigation into imports of PET originating in China could potentially open up opportunities for other Asian exporters. In response to a question about the development of bio-PET, Jincy Varghese explained that this area is expected to grow on the premise that appropriate factories are built. Sources: Icis
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