TRADE SHOW REVIEW PETplanet Insider Vol. 24 No. 05/23 www.petpla.net 42 ers in China. “We were able to forecast an 11.8% increase in PTA capacity in Asia from 2022 to 2023, and this to remain steady until 2024. For PX, we saw a 14.8% increase from 2022 to 2023 and we see only a 3.7% increase by 2024,” said Mr Zhang. Contrary to high capacities, the production rates of the textile industries in China and Southeast Asia are at a low level due to lower clothing consumption as a result of the weakening economic situation worldwide. On average, the textile industry was running about 20% lower than normal at the beginning of the year. However, a potential improvement is expected in the coming year. For the current year, Icis showed an outlook into apparel (polyester, 75% PTA demand), beverages (virgin PET, 20% PTA demand) and tourism. The demand for clothing within China, for example, is expected to rebound due to the lifting of the lockdowns, but not so global consumption due to high inflation. Demand for beverages is expected to increase due to outdoor activities, while the area of disinfectants is expected to decline. Last but not least, the tourism sector in Asia is expected to recover and open up new business opportunities due to the end of pandemic restrictions. Continued demand for PET material from Western markets is leading to tight supply in Asian PET resin market, while Asian PET resin demand growth should be around 6%. For 2023, in addition to new capacity, Icis forecast an average lower price level of US$30/t less for PX and US$20/t less for PTA with an oversupply for PTA during the year. Icis sees a recovery in Asia only in the long term. The leading Chinese PET producers keep the PTA wheel turning by constantly investing in capacity expansions, while PX production is increasingly integrated with refining and the production of various petrochemical products, leading to other product manufacturing or new factories together with PTA, which limits the necessary expansions, so that in the case of China, PX imports are still necessary. However, a trend towards a long-term reduction in import dependency is measurable. While this was still 29% in 2022-2023, it would probably fall to 26% in 2027. In Northeast Asia, production rates for PX are expected to decline over the coming years. For PTA, China’s exports were expected to increase from about 2.4 million t in 2022 t to over 3 million t in 2027. The main customers in 2022 were India with 28%, followed by Turkey with 20%. Interesting also was a comparison chart in which Mr Zhang showed the increased utility costs in relation to the total costs in Europe and Northeast Asia: while these were quite different in Northeast Asia from the beginning of 2022 to 2023, they climbed to 28% of total costs in Europe compared to 11% at pre-energy crisis levels, fuelling imports from Asia. www.icis.com
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