TRADE SHOW REVIEW PETplanet Insider Vol. 24 No. 11/23 www.petpla.net 34 within the next two years: US$100 bn investments aim to increase recycled content in bottles from 4% to 26% by 2030. Reliance is bullish on rPET developments for its own future growth, and at a faster from now onwards, as investing in recycling is the main part of its strategic growth. Current status of the EU’s trade defence and other border measures Philippe De Baere, managing partner of Van Bael & Bellis, Belgium, then took to the podium, discussing the latest EU measures on trade defence and similar initiatives, with particular regard to the anti-dumping investigation on PET imports from China, which, of course, was of paramount interest to all attendees. De Baere mentioned China as an easy target for the EU, as it is always considered as a distorted economy. He suggested that this investigation is more about protecting big business than the general public. The proposition to include not only virgin PET but also rPET was described by De Baere as ‘strange’. The Commission’s decision on the subject is awaited and meanwhile it is likely that some provisional measures will be applied shortly. This is despite the fact that evidence reveals that the peak of PET Chinese import has already waned, and that it was caused by the exploiting of a logistic advantage. During the Covid years, China only could offer to PET users shipments of materials on break bulk vessels. This opportunistic device, De Baere stated, may ultimately result in European consumers paying more in the future and being more dependent on fewer and perhaps single suppliers when the doors to China are closed. PET market – global overview & rPET analysis Mr Zanchi gave an overview of the current PET market and future trends. China is the largest PTA producer with 70% of global capacity. Most is used internally and a small part (6%) is exported. The Chinese PTA price will therefore remain a reference. PET capacity in China is likely to be in surplus (5 mio tonnes). More than 60% of world PET capacity is located in the country. On the other hand, in Europe, imports are increasing from countries like Vietnam, Turkey and Egypt, but what matters now is current developments in rPET. The collection rate is 62% in the continent with a target of 90% in 2029. The lack of rPET for the coming years (especially 2025) is not as dramatic as foreseen last year, but still there will be need for imports. But at the right price, as Zanchi pointed out. The price of rPET must be lower than virgin PET, and this may happen with higher collection rates, and a reasonable bale price (to support it). And all that must be offered by a reliable supplier of high-quality recycled material. GSI has tested many manufacturers of flakes and rPET around the globe to support its customers in finding the most reliable ones. It follows therefore that rPET demand is directly linked to the development of the PET price in 2024. And the good news, brought exclusively at PET Day 2023 by the Zhejiang Commodity Exchange (the authority which has created the PTA futures market in China), is that next year the PET futures market is scheduled to be inaugurated. This could be a significant instrument for the whole sector, a major step forward toward fixing a transparent price for this important material. With the support of GSI (one of the few non-Chinese companies which can operate into these markets) there will be great opportunities for the main PET buyers. Finally, Zanchi pointed out the things that will impact the price of PET in the coming months: oil comes first, then freight. Freight costs will be maintained at current levels by an undeclared but apparent cartel among shipping companies. Also, EU measures against Chinese material will affect competitiveness in Europe (import from zero duty areas) already hit by high energy costs. Contract purchasing may help optimise the buying process, as well as choosing the right moment to buy and non-European buyers may be able to enjoy low Chinese prices. GSI will be supporting their customers through any of these stages in what will certainly be a buyer’s market. St. Lawrence Foundation Before lunch was taken, Ms Chiara Zanchi showed a short video Paul Hodges, Chairman New Normal Consulting, during his lecture on “The end of business as usual – building the new business models of the future” Hemant D. Sharma, Reliance Francesco Zanchi (r.) in discussion with (f.l.) Hans van Bochove, EU Corporate Advocacy Group, Philippe de Baere, Van Bael & Bellis, and Werner Bosmans, EU Commission
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy NTY0MjI=