PETpla.net Insider 11 / 2024

EVENT REVIEW PETplanet Insider Vol. 25 No. 11/24 www.petpla.net 30 PET Day 2024 “We need more collection, education and fines” Rain or shine, we came back to Artimino, Florence, Italy, for the 22nd PET Day. This 2024 edition was unfortunately, for the very first time, under a steady rain throughout the event, but that did not discourage the exclusive audience to be present at the iconic Villa Medicea. The event was hosted by G.S.I. Global Service International srl, Italy, and its entire team welcomed customers and suppliers, top managers and purchasers, polyesters experts and economists at the historical venue. Mr Francesco Zanchi, founder and CEO of GSI, opened the PET Day surrounded by his team introducing the new members of his international staff. The global presence of GSI is getting wider and expanding its presence in all continents, excluding only Oceania and Antarctica (for now…). The company has been on the market for more than 30 years, and it is recognised as one of the top leading player and reputable partner in the raw materials world, covering polyesters and polyolefins. The event commenced with a thought-provoking lecture presented by Paul Hodges, of New Normal Consulting, a familiar presence in the latest PET Days. He addressed the critical implications of the ageing global population, particularly in the West, where the former wealth creators, known now as the perennials (over 55 y/o) are becoming too many in comparison with the current younger population: unfortunately, this imbalance is failing to support a new cycle of new economic growth. This demographic shift poses significant challenges to the world economies and also to PET markets. These are not happy times; life is not stable anymore. All markets will change greatly in the next few years, mainly between 2027 and 2030. The EV car evolution is one example: in China already 50% of the cars are now electric. In the chemical sector, there is still an incredible number of new investments creating an even bigger overcapacity. Oil and petrochemicals will suffer: refineries will shut 30% of their capacity by 2030. Mr Hodges stated that we need some reinvention to have growth opportunities: more service orientation, provide solutions more than products, mostly addressed towards mobility, water, food, health, defence and conservation. Mr Hemant Sharma of Reliance, India, echoed the great volatility that the industry must face and must adapt to. The geopolitical tensions of the last 12 months, the rising freight costs, inflation and interest rates: he hopes the worst is behind us. At least some signals indicate that. Mr Sharma foresees oil moving down next year. Polyester producers are suffering and 2025 will be even more challenging considering the increase in capacity worldwide: “Just look at PTA where its increase of output between 2020 and 2024 is double the amount of the increase in demand. It is necessary to work on recycling and Reliance successfully is greatly committed to generate more and more awareness on recycling particularly in India,” he summarised. Philippe De Baere, managing partner of Van Bael & Bellis, Belgium, took the microphone with an overview on PET in the EU trade context, explaining how today EU trade policies are more and more linked to its environmental stance. “In any case EU trade defense measures, after having hit Chinese PET, risk now to turn towards PET of Vietnamese origin, the import of which has inevitably strongly increased. There is a possibility that the EU will use Anti-Circumvention instrument to implement new protection measures, usually a harsher tool than the usual anti-dumping.” Francesco Zanchi, GSI, started illustrating the general overcapacity in China for all polyester-related materials, from PTA to PET. “The point is that, worldwide, the demand for PET in 2025 will be dropping but capacity will keep increasing. Output is expected at around 44 million tonnes against a demand lower than 30 million. In China alone the surplus of PET nearly doubled from 2023 to 2024 (5 to 9 million tonnes) and will increase still. Eventually it is important always to watch closely what China is doing in polyesters as they have 48% of the world capacity and 75% of the world trade. In Europe, demand for virgin is getting lower, and it is moving towards rPET, whose output is increasing in line with the demand.

RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy NTY0MjI=