China’s plastic bottle market forecasts modest 0.2% volume CAGR through 2035
The market intelligence platform IndexBox has published a new report: China – Carboys, Bottles And Similar Articles Of Plastics – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.
According to the report, in 2024, consumption of carboys, bottles and similar articles of plastics decreased by -0.6% to 5.9M tons, falling for the second year in a row after five years of growth. Overall, consumption, however, recorded a slight increase. Plastic bottle consumption peaked at 6M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure. The value of the plastic bottle market in China contracted to $38.7B in 2024, with a decrease of -7.1% against the previous year. This figure is reported to reflect the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analysed period. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $45.3B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.
Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for carboys, bottles and similar articles of plastics in China, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.2% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 6.1M tons by the end of 2035. In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +0.4% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $40.6B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
Production
In 2024, production of carboys, bottles and similar articles of plastics increased by 0.3% to 6.3M tons, rising for the seventh consecutive year after two years of decline. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analysed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the production volume increased by 6.2%. Over the period under review, production reached the peak volume in 2024 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term, says IndexBox. In value terms, plastic bottle production shrank to $42.1B in 2024 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated a pronounced increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analysed period. Based on 2024 figures, production decreased by -16.2% against 2022 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when the production volume increased by 22%. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at $50.2B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.
Imports
In 2024, plastic bottle imports into China contracted to 5.2K tons, waning by -2.1% compared with the previous year. Overall, imports continue to indicate a noticeable shrinkage. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when imports increased by 80% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of 15K tons. From 2017 to 2024, the growth of imports failed to regain momentum. In value terms, plastic bottle imports dropped to $52M in 2024. In general, imports saw a pronounced decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 17%. As a result, imports reached the peak of $103M. From 2019 to 2024, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.
The United States (683 t), South Korea (632 t) and Japan (535 t) were the main suppliers of plastic bottle imports to China, together accounting for 36% of total imports. India, Taiwan (Chinese), Thailand, Germany, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, the UK, France and Malaysia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 38%.
Exports
In 2024, shipments abroad of carboys, bottles and similar articles of plastics increased by 17% to 342K tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline, states the report. In general, exports recorded buoyant growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when exports increased by 40% against the previous year. The exports peaked in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in years to come. In value terms, plastic bottle exports totaled $2.4B in 2024. Overall, exports posted prominent growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when exports increased by 64%. The exports peaked at $2.5B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure. The United States (70K t) was the main destination for plastic bottle exports from China, with a 21% share of total exports. Moreover, plastic bottle exports to the United States exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Japan (17K t), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Thailand (15K t), with a 4.3% share.